Mission, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

691
FXUS63 KTOP 110505
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1205 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms build back this afternoon and continue through Monday
  morning. Rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour could lead to
  flooding, especially along and south of Interstate 70 where
  the Flood Watch remains in effect.

- A few storms this afternoon into early Monday could be strong to
  severe. Damaging wind gusts would be the main hazard.

- Chances (20-40%) for showers and storms continue Monday and
  Tuesday before warmer and drier conditions are favored
  Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Mid-level flow has become southwesterly this afternoon across
the Central Plains ahead of a shortwave trough over the Rockies.
Skies have been slowly clearing from west to east through the
day and temperatures are warming slower than expected, but still
will reach into the 80s. The surface front currently resides
just south of the Interstate 35 corridor with the 850mb boundary
along Interstate 70. These boundaries are expected to slide
farther south through the rest of the day before stalling across
southern and east central Kansas this evening. Storms are
expected to develop along the surface boundary this afternoon
into the evening from southern Kansas into east central Kansas,
aided by several passing waves in the broad southwesterly flow.
Initial storms could be strong to severe given MLCAPE of
3000-3500 J/kg and effective shear 20-25kts. Damaging wind gusts
and locally heavy rainfall would be the main hazards, but some
small hail is also possible. Coverage of storms increases and
lifts north through the evening and overnight as the low-level
jet strengthens. PWATs of around 2 inches will support rainfall
rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour and could lead to flooding,
especially if the boundary doesn`t lift back north and storms
are able to train along a west-east axis. A few storms could be
strong to severe overnight as well and produce damaging wind
gusts, mainly if a cluster or line segment of storms is able to
organize. CAMs have been consistent in the heaviest rainfall
impacting areas south of Interstate 70, but still vary in
exactly how far north precipitation will progress. Even so,
confidence in heavy rainfall leading to flooding is highest
along and south of Interstate 70, so the flood watch for areas
north of the interstate has been cancelled. These area could
still see locally heavy rainfall, but the threat for flooding is
focused to the south.

Shortwave energy becomes cutoff from the main flow Monday into
Tuesday. Guidance suggests an MCV from convection will linger
through the daytime hours on Monday, leading to scattered showers
and storms for much of the day. With precipitation and cloud cover
hanging on through the day, diurnal heating will be limited and
temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Precipitation
chances continue into Tuesday before the shortwave sags far enough
south to allow for the mid-level ridge to build towards the local
area. This favors warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR to MVFR through the TAF period with off and on showers and
thunderstorms. The most likely time for thunderstorms to impact
the terminals is 11z to 15z. Before and after that timeframe
thunderstorms will likely be more scattered and confidence in
storms impacting terminals during the afternoon and evening is
much lower at this time. Wind will generally be light and out of
the southeast but may go variable several times through the
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Jones