Mission, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

357
FXUS63 KTOP 131720
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1120 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One final spring-like afternoon as highs peak in the low to
  middle 60s, followed by near normal temps Wednesday onward
  and colder temps for the first half of the weekend.

- Increased scattered chances for rain showers late this
  afternoon through early evening with the passing cold front.

- Periods of elevated fire danger are possible Wednesday,
  Friday, and Saturday afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Increasing high clouds noted on water vapor imagery this morning
upstream of an incoming upper trough, currently entering the
northern plains. These scattered high clouds will impact northeast
Kansas later this morning into the afternoon, albeit should not have
much impact on the warming temps today. A 925mb thermal ridge axis
is consistent among short term guidance of 15 to 17C tracking
southeast along the frontal shift where compressional warming allows
temps to reach the lower and middle 60s. This is coincident with the
90th percentile of the NBM, similar to what was observed Monday.
CAMs are also consistent in scattered rain showers entering north
central Kansas along the cold front by late afternoon, spreading
southeast through much of the area between 5 pm and midnight.
Consensus QPF amounts at this time are light (<0.10 inches) due to
the time delay overcoming the drier airmass.

Wednesday becomes much cooler and blustery as north winds increase
from 15 to 25 mph sustained. Wind gusts are around 30 mph. There is
a brief period of elevated fire danger concerns in the late
afternoon Wednesday as forecast minimum RH values fall to around 35
percent (see Fire Weather Discussion below). Another potent upper
trough dives southward into the region Friday evening, resulting in
gusty northwest winds from 20 to 30 mph. Precip probabilities remain
low at this point, however could change in the coming days as there
are signals from ensembles of QPF skirting our CWA to the north and
east. Depth of the cold airmass is becoming more uncertain with
increased spread among NBM from the upper 20s to low 40s in Topeka.
This large spread persists into early next week as it appears
warming trends commence again as low level winds back to the
west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. A cold front will
move through terminals this evening, bringing a chance for
showers. Coverage of -RA remains uncertain, but any impacts to
terminals should be limited, although any showers could produce
brief gusty winds. Winds increase from the north overnight and
become gusty Wednesday morning. Cigs may drop to MVFR late in
this TAF period, but confidence is too low for inclusion at this
time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

There are a few periods of elevated fire danger this week, focusing
on tomorrow afternoon, Friday, and Saturday afternoons.
Northerly winds increase early Wednesday morning, becoming
strongest in the afternoon from 15 to 20 mph. Minimum RH values
fall from 30 to 35 percent, leading to a brief period (1-2
hours) of elevated fire danger. Fire weather concerns increase
once again on Friday and Saturday as another strong cold front
enters the region. Northwest winds are strongest on Friday
afternoon from 20 to 30 mph sustained, gusting to 40 mph as RH
values fall from 30 to 35 percent. Winds are not as strong on
Saturday, however RH values are lower in the 20 to 30 percent
range as northwest winds sustain from 15 to 20 mph, gusting to
30 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Flanagan
FIRE WEATHER...Prieto